ATLAS V5 Morning Report 2026-05-12 — May 12 Tue AM CPI DAY HOTTER THAN EXPECTED / HEADLINE +0.6% MoM +3.8%

Key Headlines

• May 12 Tue AM CPI DAY HOTTER THAN EXPECTED
• HEADLINE +0.6% MoM +3.8% YoY HIGHEST SINCE SEPT 2023
• CORE +0.4% MoM +2.8% YoY 2X CLEVELAND FED NOWCAST +0.21%
• ENERGY +3.8% MoM 40%+ OF MOVE
• SHELTER +0.6% MoM OER RESET WILDCARD HIT
• US-CHINA 90-DAY TARIFF TRUCE SUN GENEVA US 145%->30% CHINA 125%->10% EFFECTIVE MAY 14
• POLYMARKET 64% TARIFF DEAL BY MAY 31
• MON CLOSE S&P RECORD ATH 7,412.84
• NASDAQ ATH 26,274.13
• DOW 49,704.47
• WARSH MON CLOTURE PASSED 49-44 (FETTERMAN+COONS D ONLY DEM CROSSOVER)
• TODAY 11:30 AM ET BOARD GOVERNOR CONFIRM + CHAIR CLOTURE
• WED FINAL CHAIR CONFIRM VOTE
• FRI MAY 15 POWELL CHAIR TERM EXPIRES
• WARSH EFFECTIVE SUN MAY 17
• POWELL STAYS GOVERNOR TO 2028 FIRST SINCE ECCLES 1948
• $42B 10Y AUCTION 1 PM ET INTO POST-CPI YIELD BACK-UP
• 10Y 4.41% LIKELY PUSHING 4.45%+
• RUSSIA 200+ DRONES AT UKRAINE OVERNIGHT AS VICTORY DAY TRUCE EXPIRED
• 4 CIV KILLED 27 INJURED KYIV
• 1,000-FOR-1,000 PRISONER SWAP NOT COMPLETED
• TRUMP IRAN PIECE OF GARBAGE MASSIVE LIFE SUPPORT 1% CHANCE OF LIVING
• IRAN 14-POINT DEMANDS HORMUZ TOLL US REJECTED
• STRAIT RESTRICTED
• NAVAL BLOCKADE ACTIVE
• BRENT $104-106 WTI $97-100
• BTC $80,741-$81,186 PRE-MKT
• 24H RANGE $80,451-$82,099
• 4TH WEEKEND $80K FLOOR HELD
• 200DMA $83,150 STILL CEILING NOT BROKEN